Expected Future Unemployment Numbers and GDP Next Quarter

update

China suffered an even deeper slump than analysts feared at the start of the year as the coronavirus shuttered factories, shops and restaurants across the nation, underscoring the fallout now facing the global economy as the virus spreads around the world.

Industrial output plunged 13.5% in January and February from a year earlier, retail sales fell 20.5%, and fixed-asset investment dropped 24.5%. The unemployment rate jumped to a record 6.2% in February, when the outbreak worsened and much of the economy was shutdown.

***These sit outside any historic records: At least a million unemployed and a GDP decline of a 5%.

Stock Market Signals They Understands The Scale of the Pandemic Next Week

*Down 3000 points today. Second worst down day in history. 

*Down 8% today at 2250 points. Circuit breaker tripped. Feds dropped interest rates now to zero yesterday and other things to support the stock market. It didn't work a planed, everyone interprets the move as hell is on the way to the USA. Our whole population is terrified. Hoarding and panic buying at the supermarkets are everywhere. Empty shelves at supermarkets. Everything is shut down in the USA. Most of our schools. Our financial system is freezing up...the business cable channel are increasing talking a depression. What is occurring all around our nation is something we never see in history before. The dollar is weakening and they don't know how low it will go. Everyone realizes our hospitals throughout our nation are going to collapse. All the states are in a state of emergency and so is our nation. This freeze-up took longer that I thought.
     
First posted on 1/25 and re-posted on March 16, 2020.

March 12

Dow Down 2350 points...10%. Worst point decline ever and worst percentage decline since Black Monday 1987.

In the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell exactly 508 points (22.6%).^[2] This was the largest one-day percentage drop in history.

Feb 24

Almost a month later they are finally get it:

*Coronavirus cases surge in Italy, Iran, South Korea

*The Dow was down 1000 points today over the upcoming coronavirus pandemic. They finally get it.  

 

Update Jan 27

Dow futures sink more than 400 points as coronavirus cases rise

*If the stock market understands the scale with the Pandemic, it will be down 3000 to 4000 points by the end of next week. It will be down my one half the current value in six months. 

When Social Distancing Begins To Not Work

When the infection level exceeds 1% in the general public social distancing doesn't work. The infectiousness of the virus plays a role too.

To My Space Aliens Friends

The world desperately needs you to step and help us. I am available.

You need to park your spacecraft above Washington and ask for a meeting with the world leaders. Bring us the coronavirus vaccine or cure and allow us to distributed it. 

You could take over one of the  major cable new channels temporally  before you arrive. Tell us all you are coming to earth to cure coronavirus. The do it. 

Then establish a earth panel who could work our future interactions. 

You would have to demonstrate you can do it. I"ll pick a hospital filled with coronavirus patients and then you cure them all. Tell us the location and time and date before you do it. Then do it.

I would be disappointed with you it you made secret deals with governments to accomplish it. Everything would have to be transparent.       

Shutting Down The USA For Two weeks

This is ridiculous. There are afraid to tell you the truth. The two week shutdown is to make it politically palatable for the businesses and public. If we shutdown the nation for two weeks, we would stay shutdown until the end of the year. 

All Dead Bodies Should Be Tested For Coronavirus Within 12 Hours Of Death

It should be a federal law. It would immediately give us the extent of the Pandemic and it lead to giving us the true fatality rate. All bodies, not those just suspected with the infection.

Risk Perspectives and Priorities

I think these terms are all bullshitism. The burdens of these terms, and they are all ideological, are going to fall on the dis-empowered, poor and weak. We should live in a world that has enough resources for everyone and we should never hear risk perspectives and priorities again.

You should be outrage that Italians doctors have to make a choice of who is to live or dies because there is not enough ventilators. Those doctors, all of us, should be spitting mad at how coolly and clinically the doctors.

I tell you what, if I was in a system like that and I don't care how grave the emergency is, I'd quit or withdraw from the job or system. I would never let a long term dysfunctional system demand I make that choice. I would  fight them from the rest of my life. I would never let a corrupt system ruin my life because it set up this condition.

A shocking Lack of Imagination In Our Society...A stark failure Of Imagination

What is killing our imagination in our society? The idea we  are overly dependent on rules, laws, evidence and facts. The role of imagination  towers in importance over rules, laws, evidence and facts. 

We Need A Unprecedented Public Works Program Like Our 1930 Depression

It is got to be started up  immediately. From artist to PhDs. The massive infrastructure program we been contemplating for decades is enormously too small. 

What kind of public works projects can we create for the internet...     

Shocking Deflationary Depression On the Way

*Could our local hospitals handle this?

Italy reports 25 percent spike in coronavirus death toll, in deadliest 24-hour span to date

ROME — Italy on Sunday announced a 25 percent spike in its coronavirus death toll, reporting 368 deaths in the deadliest 24-hour span to date.

The country’s death roll has risen at an alarming rate: In each of the past three days, at least 200 people have been reported dead because of the virus. It was only three weeks ago that Italy had its first reported death from the virus. Now, more than 1,800 people have died.

The total number of active cases has been rising roughly 20 percent daily, and the government’s nationwide lockdown — restricting movement and stopping most commercial activity — has not yet caused a slowdown.

Some two-thirds of Italy’s deaths have happened in the region at the center of the outbreak, Lombardy. There, because of overloaded hospitals, the official fatality rate is more than 9 percent, according to government data. In the rest of the country, it is 5.1 percent. By either measure, Italy’s death rate is higher than other countries’ — in part because it has a larger proportion of seniors than any country other than Japan.

* I think it is baked into the cake. It is a inevitability. Our politicians need to prepare us for this. Panic more than we can imagine would happen, if we are deep in a Pandemic with bodies piling us, then we realize our economy collapses and it will be around for maybe a decade for us to repair it.   

Japanese minister says virus may be worse for economy than 2008 financial crisis

BLOOMBERG, REUTERS

MAR 15, 2020

The effect of the new coronavirus on the economy could be worse than the 2008 financial crisis, economic revitalization minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said Sunday.

Speaking on Fuji Television, Nishimura called for strong measures to protect the economy and said proper consideration should be given to whether reducing the sales tax would bolster consumption.

The economy was already teetering on the brink of recession when the effect of the virus began to kick in, partly due to an increase in the sales tax to 10 percent in October from the previous 8 percent. Some have called for the increase to be reversed to help encourage consumption.

“This may be on a par with the Lehman shock, or even worse,” Nishimura said, referring to the 2008 collapse of the Lehman Brothers U.S. investment bank. “We need measures on the same scale. They should be bold and not limited by what’s been done before.”

Mobilizing Our Military For Domestic USE

Yea, this is about protecting our military from coronavirus, but it sounds like we might use the military in a big way for domestic  use. Congress should pass the applicable laws to facilitate the use of the domestic use. I wonder if the National Emergency allows the use of our military domestically. I have absolutely no fear the military would turn against us. The internet and our news media would prevent this. 

The example is we have a ton of military, cargo planes, vehicles, trucks and drivers who could distribute food and other things. 

I think we will need the military to do security issues around the country. Remember in Katrina and that hard ass SOB U.S. Army Lieutenant General Russel L. Honoré.    

In the wake of the global coronavirus pandemic, the Navy’s top officer and his most senior enlisted adviser took to social media and official online sites Saturday to calm the fleet and explain the unprecedented orders they’re instituting to help stop the spread of COVID-19.

The brief message — 74 seconds — addressed sweeping changes in how personnel and their families will travel and work over the next 60 days, including the suspension of official, personal and PCS travel inside the continental United States and to designated locations worldwide where the disease is entrenched in local populations; plus "flexible work schedules and the use of telework.

“Our understanding of the coronavirus is rapidly evolving, and we may have to implement further measures to combat the spread of this virus,” warned Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday.

“America depends upon us to help provide security and stability to this nation, and that’s exactly what we will continue to do.”

The Battle Between Government Coronavirus Centralization and Decentralization

What we are seeing now with Trump is severe ideological  government decentralization. A patchwork of state and city action surrounding coronavirus. It is a tremendous waste of resources and actions end up failing or being unbelievably slow. Should we act as one or are we isolated rugged individuals. We have shifted all of government to the decentralization mode in service to the rich and businesses. They gain a unfair from this and it dis-empowers most of this. The rub with centralization it takes a highly educated and trained government work force... States rights versus federal rights. Basically one set of rules everyone follows and enforced. Our military is like that. I am talking about a democracy with public rights and processes that would soften authoritarianism.           

Trump Declares A Coronavirus National Emergency On March 13

This will help put me in the future remember the context of the times we live.

Coronavirus in Italy: More Younger Patients Going Into Intensive Care and Sicker

The second wave is younger and sicker. Is this guy mutating right in front us. There is absolutely no reason this won't happen in the USA. And it just might get more deadly!  

Coronavirus: More young patients being admitted to hospital, Italian doctor warns

Over 17,600 people are infected by Covid-19 in Europe’s worst-hit country

Italians admitted to hospital for coronavirus are getting younger, a health official has claimed.

“The type of patient is changing,” Luca Lorini, the head of anaesthesia and intensive care at a northern Italian hospital, has said.

“They are a bit younger, between 40 to 45 years old and the cases are more complicated.”

Dr Lorini, who works at a hospital in Bergamo, told radio programme RaiNews24: ”People are arriving who got ill six or seven days ago and treated themselves at home – and then their conditions became more and more critical.”

Twelve per cent of those who have been treated in intensive care are aged between 19 and 50, according to official figures released last week. Around 52 per cent are between 51 and 70 years old, with the rest all over 70. 

Recently, hospitals in Lombardy have seen people aged between 25 and 50 diagnosed with Covid-19 and subsequently hospitalised for treatment, according to local media reports.

“Even if the data is only preliminary, the fact there are more young people hospitalised and in intensive care compared to the first wave can be interpreted as a natural phenomenon,” Pierluigi Lopalco, a professor from Pisa University, told Italian newspaper Il Corriere della Sera.

“In Italy, the first clusters of the infection started around hospitals, more commonly frequented by older people, and in small towns,” he said.

“Now the virus has spread, it is travelling around the whole country way more and it is younger people, with lots of social contact, that are more at risk of contracting the disease if they do not stick to the rules of social distancing.”...

When Will A Insurance Conglomerate Go Bankrupt?

These guys were some of the weak links in 2008.

self-aggrandizement

Basically Trump's speech was just filled corporate advertisement, deregulation, bully-ism and self-aggrandizement plus stinks with a extremist Ideology. 

Coronavirus: Brattleboro, Keene Hospitals Are Going to Be A Massacre Zone!

March 16

The most critical issues facing us today: Coronavirus USA Update: 2 Emergency Room Doctors Hospitalized In ‘Critical Condition’

March 15. One is 40 years old and the other 70 years old. A lot of emergency personnel and doctors caught the virus and died in China. There is something going on different with infections with the emergency staff than the normal public. They think it has something to do with the elevated virus levels they see in their work.      

March 15

Sorry, It was Kent State not Keene State. 

Keene State has a maintenance worker they suspect has an infection of coronavirus. He has been all over the facility. 

*All New York City hospitals will be required to cancel elective surgeries, mayor says *Here it comes or it was always here and we just realized it: 


Coronavirus in Massachusetts: Brigham and Women’s Hospital worker tests positive for COVID-19

March 14

*Italy:“It’s a massive overload,” said Unks. “They have triage tents outside hospitals so if you and I walk in together, they decide: ‘Is Brian going to live or Shannon going to live?’ They pick the one most likely to live. They have to pick the person they think is going to survive the most. They do not have enough beds, respirators, not enough personnel to care for everyone.”

*Why isn't this happening here: N.Y. Hospitals Pitch Tents, Nix Surgeries to Prepare for Influx

*NYT: Coronavirus in N.Y.: Will a Surge in Patients Overwhelm Hospitals?

“We are not prepared,” one doctor said. New York City’s hospitals may be moving too slowly as the outbreak spreads, experts say.

In a stark email to colleagues across Europe, the doctor, who wishes to remain anonymous, wrote: ‘It is true that most patients have flu-like symptoms and recover, but there is a significant proportion – not only old people – who develop acute unexpected severe respiratory distress requiring breath assistance and intubation [inserting an airway tube].’

‘Hospitals are crowded with sick people, while emergency rooms are empty because people are afraid to go there,’ he wrote, adding that outpatient visits in the region’s hospitals were likely to be cancelled from tomorrow as colleagues around the country reported an ‘alarming shortage of doctors and nurses, making them unable to cover duties and shifts’.

‘Where I work, routine surgeries – for breast, kidney and colon cancers and other procedures – are postponed or reduced because of the shortage of intensive care assistance,’ he wrote. ‘My concern is whether – and for how long – our system can tolerate this.’

*Surgeon General Calls On Hospitals To Consider Stopping Elective Surgeries

“It’s a massive overload,” said Unks. “They have triage tents outside hospitals so if you and I walk in together, they decide: ‘Is Brian going to live or Shannon going to live?’ They pick the one most likely to live. They have to pick the person they think is going to survive the most. They do not have enough beds, respirators, not enough personnel to care for everyone.”

*My coronavirus quarantine in Italy: Learn from our mistakes
Do not ignore the warnings as we did in Italy

Italy is living through an incomprehensible tragedy, the likes of which the world has never seen. All 60 million of its residents are squirreled away at home, leaving only when necessary for food or medicines, armed with ID cards to show the police when we are inevitably stopped.

We’ve been asked to stay home and finally, we are listening, but it is too late for many.

I believe America is the most incredible nation to have ever existed but this virus does not care about that. Please learn from our mistakes. Do not ignore the warnings as we did.As I write this, there are nearly 136,000 official cases worldwide, 15,113 in Italy with 2,651 new cases in just the last 24 hours, and 1,016 deaths.

*Ex-Obama official warns US health system faces 'tsunami' over coronavirus

*Hospitals in the US could be overrun by coronavirus cases in little more than a week, a former Obama administration senior health official has warned, fearing a “tsunami-like” escalation that would leave tens of thousands in need of inpatient medical care but unlikely to receive it.

*Coronavirus Death Rate Soars to 7% in Italy – Is America Next?
Boston globe: Hospitals must now plan for pandemic’s worst

The number of people infected by coronavirus in Italy has risen by around 20% in one day to 21,157.

***The whole nation has been talking about hospitals in the last 24 hours. The governor of the state of Washington expects greater than 60,000 infected in two week with an additional 400 dead. We are going to have to completely destroy our economy to save our hospitals and prevent a massacre. We are deep into a national panic...shortages all over the place.  

***Our fatality rate in coronavirusville will be starting higher than average. 

Just saying, how much would you bribe your doctor or senior hospital administrator to get you "cuts" in the ventilator line to save your mother. What is the going rate: $50,000 to $100,000?  

Trump is going to declare a national emergency and get FEMA this afternoon. It is months late. We have to anticipate a Pandemic instead waiting for triplicate perfect proof with the Pandemic. We live in a world of incomplete information and are required to make judgement on fragmentary information and intuitions on a daily and hourly bases. The example is going out to get a gallon of milk. You never know in details what the road conditions are and even if the milk is in stock. We are completely capability of operating in a environment with incomplete and fragmentary information.       

"That analysis, based on data from the American Hospital Association, U.S. Census, CDC and World Health Organization, is purposely conservative. For example, it assumes all beds will be empty. Since two thirds of them are not, the reality could be far worse: about 17 people per open bed."

The US Gov's worst case based their analysis on a 7.5% infection rate for the population. The medical experts say the coronavirus infection rates can end up being 70%.

Honestly, I think this is baked into the cake. 

When are you going to stand up for us? 

Brattleboro Memorial Hospital

Dartmouth-Hitchcock Keene  

So 17 patients will be competing for one hospital beds. I believe around here, it will be 28. We have a high population of poverty. We got nurses and doctor shortages leading to a diminution of skills and discipline all around. Not many medical people favor this kind of region. The flu at this point is ravishing our population with it being worst than normal. Heroin and other drugs are again ravishing our poor population. It is a perfect storm of death. 

You get what is going to happen. There will be 2 or more people competing for one ventilator or advanced services. The doctor will choose what patient gets the ventilator based on medical triage. The other will die. In normal times, the dead person would be saved. I'd make the case these doctors who choose who gets the ventilators...they will be force to kill (triage) more patient than to cure patients. There will be a ton more medical or medicine errors...this will be a sin against the medical community. 

There will be problems getting the dead bodies out of the hospitals and more big troubles with burying the dead.

I predict the biggest 2020 story in our area won't be coronavirus...it will be about startling levels deaths in our hospitals.

Remember the severe patients usually gets shipped off to specialized big city hospital. These hospitals will get overrun with sick patients first and they will be unavailable to hospitals like Keene and Brattleboro!   

Hospitals won’t have enough beds if coronavirus spikes

No state in the U.S. will have enough room for novel coronavirus patients if the surge in severe cases here mirrors that in other countries.

A USA TODAY analysis shows that if the nation sees a major spike, there could be almost six seriously ill patients for every existing hospital bed.

That analysis, based on data from the American Hospital Association, U.S. Census, CDC and World Health Organization, is purposely conservative. For example, it assumes all beds will be empty. Since two thirds of them are not, the reality could be far worse: about 17 people per open bed.

“Unless we are able to implement dramatic isolation measures like some places in China, we’ll be presented with overwhelming numbers of coronavirus patients – two to 10 times as we see at peak influenza times,” said Dr. James Lawler, who researches emerging diseases at the University of Nebraska Medical Center and the Global Center for Health Security.

Lawler added that “no hospital has current capacity to absorb that” without taking crisis care measures, such as postponing elective procedures and reserving finite resources for those coronavirus patients most likely to recover. The American Hospital Association wrote to congressional leaders in February to ask for money to build hospitals and housing to isolate patients.

USA TODAY’s analysis estimates 23.8 million Americans could contract COVID-19, the illness caused by the novel coronavirus that first appeared in Wuhan, China.

That number is based on an infection rate of 7.4% – similar to a mild flu year. Experts say this infection rate will likely be far higher.

The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security estimates that 38 million Americans will need medical care for COVID-19, including as many as 9.6 million who need to be hospitalized – about a third of whom might need ICU-level care. In a February presentation to the American Hospital Association, Lawler estimated that as many as 96 million Americans could be infected.

Most people with COVID-19, however, will have only mild symptoms. Studies of cases in other countries suggest that some of those responsible for community spread were never identified as infected because they didn’t develop any symptoms...

Italy's Hospitals At The Stage of Collapse

Our trend of coronavirus cases mimics Italy's cases eleven days ago. We are eleven days behind them.  
Monday March 23 is that day!

This is us in eleven days. We have seven times the population as Italy. You can't deny the rate of the intensifying Pandemic is extraordinarily scary.  

Coronavirus: Italy’s hospitals overflow with the dead as toll tops 1,000

Officials in hard-hit Lombardy region have cut red tape for burials and processing of death certificates

Hospitals in Italy’s hard-hit Lombardy region, already overwhelmed trying to care for the increasing number of sick people in limited intensive care units, are overflowing with the dead.

Lombardy’s top health care official, Giulio Gallera, said at the request of the hospitals, the region had simplified the bureaucracy needed to process death certificates and bury the dead, with the death toll in Lombardy alone reaching 617 by late Wednesday.

Ok, We Got Millions Of Square Feet Of Empty Stores and Malls...How Do We Put This To Use

The stores and malls shuttered by eBay and Amazon. It is a huge resource and would be easy to be put back to use. 

In our battle to contain coronavirus, how could we use this resource efficiently? 

What Is The Coronavirus Pandemic Going To Teach Us

Sometimes for wrong reason, we set things in motion or neglect to fix problems when known, until it ignites a situation that is uncontrollable. The only way it stops is until the energy in system exhausted. Usually in the big failures,  it ends in the deaths of millions.