This simulation took place in Nov 2019. It mostly focuses on the private sector. But in a pandemic of this scale, all that is going to matter is how effective and trustworthy governments are?
Pandemic simulations: Event 21. These video's set up the Pandemic. Check out the highlights video. Catastrophic economic devastation worldwide lasting for decades. Enough for the nations of the world to lie about! We primed the pump of the coming panic with the Cruise Ship infections. It set in our minds the mistrust of our officialdoms. This is a high intensity virus media experience and it has painted the outcome of the pandemic. Every time a member of the public think they gotten exposed, or think their family got the exposed, they are going to remember the Cruise Ship experience. The horror stories about this. The Cruise ship experience already set in stone a certain level of economic damage. Sixty five million dead. That is bad enough, but the economic damage of the pandemic is going to be many times worst than the severe illness and fatality cost. The worldwide economic and panic damage as a result of the pandemic is going to do most the hurting on the planet for a very long time.
Pandemic simulations: Event 21. These video's set up the Pandemic. Check out the highlights video. Catastrophic economic devastation worldwide lasting for decades. Enough for the nations of the world to lie about! We primed the pump of the coming panic with the Cruise Ship infections. It set in our minds the mistrust of our officialdoms. This is a high intensity virus media experience and it has painted the outcome of the pandemic. Every time a member of the public think they gotten exposed, or think their family got the exposed, they are going to remember the Cruise Ship experience. The horror stories about this. The Cruise ship experience already set in stone a certain level of economic damage. Sixty five million dead. That is bad enough, but the economic damage of the pandemic is going to be many times worst than the severe illness and fatality cost. The worldwide economic and panic damage as a result of the pandemic is going to do most the hurting on the planet for a very long time.
I think there is a worldwide conspiracy surrounding the fatality rate with coronavirus infections. What do all these nations have in common with this conspiracy...the conspiracy. What strong connections do they need to implement such a large scale conspiracy. Basically it is money and social order. How would we feel if the fatality rate was 10% to 50%. Basically the stocks markets and economies would collapse or be much lower if the truth came out. There would be hording of necessities on a world wide scale. Many millions of people would have no incomes. The planet would become a war zone before the actually dearth toll showed up.
How do you intrepid the surge in new cases and the adjustment of the testing methods other than the Chinese are trying to dilute the fatality rate. The fatality rate is all the infected population divided by the amount of deaths. The death rate is the simplest to falsify.
Maybe the nations think we got to lie to the public in order to stay strong until the actual death tally becomes apparent to everyone to see. We deny everything until the eventuality comes right upon us. Then our economies would collapse, eventually the virus will burn out. This scenario would lead to a lesser economic and social damage. Then the world would recover.
Maybe everyone is planning on a hail Marry pass with a new vaccine.
Feb 13 2020 Coronavirus Infections In China Surge As Officials Add New Testing Methods To TallyChina’s Hubei Province reported nearly 15,000 new infections on Thursday, a day after health officials said the number of new patients appeared to be falling.
Is the USA's coronavirus pandemic plans really: strict containment to the maximum extent possible and the total control with disclosures on the severity of the illness and its death rate. Of course it is really a national security plant.
I would be really interested on how the initial stage to the pandemic to when WHO declared a pandemic was modeled?
I would be really interested on how the initial stage to the pandemic to when WHO declared a pandemic was modeled?
ATLANTA (CBS46) – As nations around the world prepare to deal with the new coronavirus from China, a simulation of a pandemic surrounding a coronavirus put together late last year doesn’t instill a lot of confidence.
The simulation, called Event 21, was put together by the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins, the World Economic Forum, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The mythical virus used in the simulation was called CAPS and was a coronavirus.
In the simulation, the virus was resistant to vaccine, deadlier than SARS, and easily transmittable, Yahoo! News reported. The pandemic started with farmers coming down with symptoms and then spreading through crowded and poor neighborhoods as the global community started to fight back. Yahoo! reported the simulation showed after six months, the fake virus had spread around the world and one year later had killed 65 million people.
For comparison, the last major global pandemic was the Spanish flu in 1918. That pandemic claimed 50 million lives including hundreds of thousands in the United States. The CDC said an estimated 500 million people, or one-third of the world’s population at the time became ill with the Spanish flu.
According to Yahoo! News, the simulated pandemic “also triggered a global financial crisis” that saw stock markets collapse and “global domestic product plunged by 11 percent.” Eric Toner, senior scholar at Johns Hopkins’ Center for Health Security told Axios the threats from infectious disease outbreaks and another pandemic are “very real.”
“As we demonstrated in our Event 201 exercise in October, the world is ill-prepared for a severe pandemic. Such a global disease outbreak would not only cause widespread illness and death but there would be severe societal and economic consequences as well,” Toner told Axios.
As of January 22, the World Health Organization said the outbreak of the new Chinese coronavirus “did not constitute a PHEIC (public health emergency of international concern).” The WHO did not human-to-human transmission was occurring and of the confirmed cases, 25 percent are “reported to be severe.”
Health security
Pandemic simulation exercise spotlights massive preparedness gap
Event 201, hosted by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, envisions a fast-spreading coronavirus with a devastating impact
By Katie Pearce / Published Nov 6, 2019
Back in 2001, it was a smallpox outbreak, set off by terrorists in U.S. shopping malls. This fall, it was a SARS-like virus, germinating quietly among pig farms in Brazil before spreading to every country in the world.
With each fictional pandemic Johns Hopkins experts have designed, the takeaway lesson is the same: We are nowhere near prepared.
"Once you're in the midst of a severe pandemic, your options are very limited," says Eric Toner, a senior scholar at the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins University. "The greatest good can happen with pre-planning."
"Once you're in the midst of a severe pandemic, your options are very limited. The greatest good can happen with pre-planning."
Eric Toner
Senior scholar, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security
That center's latest pandemic simulation, Event 201, dropped participants right in the midst of an uncontrolled coronavirus outbreak that was spreading like wildfire out of South America to wreak worldwide havoc. As fictional newscasters from "GNN" narrated, the immune-resistant virus (nicknamed CAPS) was crippling trade and travel, sending the global economy into freefall. Social media was rampant with rumors and misinformation, governments were collapsing, and citizens were revolting.
For those participating in New York City on Oct. 18—a heavyweight group of policymakers, business leaders, and health officials—Event 201 was a chance to see how much catch-up work is needed to bolster our disaster response systems. Full videos of the discussion are available online.
"It really does shake up assumptions and change thinking about how we can prepare for a global pandemic," says Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security.
Video credit: Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security
Event 201 is the fourth such exercise hosted by the Johns Hopkins center, which works to prepare communities for biological threats, pandemics, and other disasters. The simulations started with 2001's Dark Winter, which gathered national security experts for its simulated smallpox outbreak. The groundbreaking event turned out to be influential in shaping U.S. efforts around pandemic preparedness—particularly due to its timing, right before 9/11.
"Dark Winter resulted in more than a dozen congressional hearings, was briefed to the White House, and ultimately influenced the decision to stockpile enough smallpox vaccine for all Americans," Inglesby says.
That simulation and its two successors—Atlantic Storm, conducted in 2005, and last summer's Clade X—have also demonstrated lasting value as educational and advocacy tools, with reenactments or modified versions taking place in settings including universities, the CDC, and Capitol Hill, according to Inglesby. "These exercises have a long fuse," he says.
For Event 201, hosted in collaboration with the World Economic Forum and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the experts added a new layer of realism by reaching beyond government and NGOs to leaders in the private sector and business community. Participants included representatives from NBCUniversal, UPS, and Johnson & Johnson.
"Very few people have included the private sector in pandemic preparedness, but that's where most of the resources are," Toner says.
That's particularly true when it comes to vaccine development. The CAPS virus—which Toner describes as a cousin of SARS, "but slightly more transmissible, like the flu, and slightly more lethal"—was presented as resistant to any existing vaccine, as scientists scrambled to come up with one. Citizens, meanwhile, were rioting over scarce access to the next best thing: a fictional antiviral known to treat some CAPS symptoms.
That scenario, Toner says, is utterly realistic. "We don't have a vaccine for SARS, or MERS, or various avian flu viruses that have come up in the past decade," he notes. "That's because vaccine development is slow and difficult if there isn't an immediate market for it."
In the simulation, CAPS resulted in a death toll of 65 million people within 18 months—surpassing the deadliest pandemic in history, the 1918 Spanish flu.
From the discussions Event 201 inspired, the Center for Health Security plans to release a set of formal recommendations within the coming weeks.
Shortly after the simulation, the center released the Global Health Security Index, the first-ever comprehensive ranking of countries on their pandemic preparedness. All in all, the picture was discouraging: The average score, across 195 countries, was 40 out of a possible 100.
"It's our hope," Inglesby says, "that countries will use this to consider where they are strong and where they are weak."