Here Comes Our Aug 24 2015 Black Monday Predicted By me Yesterday

Update Aug 25

Just saying, today's weak stock Dow (350) recovery or spring back should scare the pants off you.

Our the hedge funds going to pop and then take out our banks.

Update:

***We dodged a big one today. Maybe it will go like weeks of declines and pops of 200 to 300 point down...then the black Monday.

All bets are off if the dollar continues to decline and our economy starts indicating a decline.

***Amazing collapse in the value of the dollar today...usually it is a flight into the dollar with such worldwide market problems. This is a amazing outlier. We are at 2009 dollar levels...

Is it really a Sovereign crisis  




***Did the "Federal Reserve Board" secretly open the "Discount Window" or reduce requirements to bolster the stock market. Or some other trick?  

***Dow down 1000 points...within minutes. 1000 is about 6% while black Monday close is 22.5%  

***I am predicting a Dow and others will have a computer malfunction and shutdown the markets for hours...

***CNBC Jim Kramer says the Chinese economy has stopped or froze up...maybe in a "black hole" recession. All our stock circuit breakers have been tripped before the market even opened.  

I predicted the 2015 Black Monday yesterday at about 5 PM. This is how I framed it in light of our Korean problem. It is only gotten hardened and worst on the Korean peninsular today.

This rich people worldwide are panicking. This is how the rich people do debt repudiation world wide.

Korean War II Begins Before Monday Aug 24, 2015 

Remember, they say the Black Monday 1987 stock market collapse was initiated or made worst by the images of a burning Iranian oil rig in the Gulf seen on all our TVs on Oct 19, 1987. Is this what is in store for us tomorrow and Korean situation can only make it worst?  God only knows what other fires and explosion we will see in the coming days on our TVs and monitors. We live is such a different world today with our amazing worldwide connectivity and modern cell phones with picture and videos. 

The Futures indicate a 700 point declined...if we have a similar Chinese decline it would go down in excess of 1400 points.

The Feds are out of ammo, we have very little ammo with rate cuts. They are going to have to drop tons of hundred dollar bills by a fleet of helicopter. This is extraordinary dangerous.  This is going to scare the pants of the public and create a automatic cutback in spending. We don't know it yet, we are already in a severe recession, heading for a depression.

You watch this disaster if they have to kick up the borrowing rates in order to save the dollar.

We've had a extraordinarily and historically poor recovery post 2008 collapse...

Ron Paul in 2014(I hate him because he hates government):   

Despite rising stock prices and a falling unemployment rate, the United States is on the brink of a catastrophic "financial crisis," according to former U.S. presidential candidate Ron Paul. And the culprit could be the dollar.
 
"There's a huge bubble with the dollar," Paul said on Tuesday's "Futures Now." The Dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of other major currencies, is near 12-year highs as the Fed has retreated from its stimulative programs at just the same time that other central banks have introduced their easing measures. But rather than take the rally as a sign that investors see strength in the U.S. economy, the outspoken former congressman sees the dollar's massive move higher as simply a byproduct of a world awash in easy money.  

"It's not so much that the dollar is a great currency. It's the fact that nothing else is any better, said Paul. "The fundamentals are a disaster. The economy is in bad shape when you have more than half the people hardly making ends meet."

          

Paul declined to offer a catalyst or even a timeframe for when the dollar "bubble" could pop, but did warn that it does happen, it will be quick and unexpected. "Most of the time, these things are unforeseen," he said. "Did anybody warn us about 2007, 2008 in Lehman Brothers? Nobody warned us about that."

Basically our government has allowed the 1%ers to borrow money on a massive scale as a solution to our weak economy post 2008...basically today this is unparalleled debt repudiation on a massive scale by the 1%ers.  This is how the 1%ers do governmental debt repudiation...

Chinese Tanks And Troops Massing At The North Korean Boarder

Update Aug 25

***I bet you this is the guy that changed the tune of the North Koreans...

***The world is facing their "Airman First Class Spencer Stone, 23; Alek Skarlatos, 22, a specialist in the Oregon National Guard; and their friend Anthony Sadler, 23" moment on a French high speed commuter train?***

Is this ex-president Obama in tens years with North Korea: 

Jeb Bush Says Taking Down Saddam Hussein Was 'Pretty Good Deal'

So basically the Chinese economy is winding down quickly and the government is dealing with widespread corruption... 

Traditionally you'd be thinking China was massing troops and tanks on the boarder to send the west a message. More likely as a beheaded North Korea falls into chaos, China is terrified millions of North Korean refugees would flee into China. The doomsday scenario is all the North Korean evacuating into China and they having to house and feed them. It would destabilize a huge segment of China. So maybe this is a Chinese policing force as a way to mitigate the multitudes of refugees post Korean war. We would have to destroy all their roads, rails and bridges in the minor war...who is going to repair this? Can we begin to see a emerging new North Korea? 

What would N Korea look like with the majority of their government militarily beheaded and the citizens disconnected from their highly centralized government? It would look like Iraq after we took down their government and we couldn't trust the residual police or military force? How would you maintain stability post Saddam Hussein today? You would have a multi-national military police force in North Korean for some years afterward. They would be cool beyond imagination. A huge relation building project between China and the USA? An eventual reunification. Are we thinking about the reunification of Germany? Now that would be a everlasting legacy of President Obama??? 
        
It would be beyond cool if China was conspiring with the west to take down the north Korean monster and his dynasty. 

Massive military movements spotted near China-N. Korea border

Military experts see China telling North Korea to halt further inflamations of current tension

 

The movements of a mechanical unit at least the size of a brigade were spotted in the city of Yanji, China, in the autonomous region of Yanbian bordering North Korea. 

According to pictures released on Chinese blogs, the mechanical units of the People’s Liberation Army were composed of PTZ-89 tank destroyers (Type 89), a PGZ-95 self-propelled anti-aircraft guns (Type 95 SPAAA) and 155 mm self-propelled guns. 

Pictures were first uploaded on the China-based microblogging service Weibo around Saturday. Despite the sudden and irregular movement of troops, the Chinese government has not confirmed or officially reported on the incident yet. 

“The Chinese authorities appear to be censoring posts on the topic of the Yanji deployment by Weibo users and independent bloggers, as well as preventing media coverage of the troop movements,” said NK News China specialist Jennifer Dodgson. “Nevertheless, posts on Chinese internet forums citing overseas Chinese media reports on the matter continue to surface, including on state-owned platforms.”
“From what I know, it is not the first time they have sent units as big as this near the China–North Korea border,” said Kim Min-seok, researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum. “During the bombardment of Yeonpyeong in 2010 and after the purge of Jang Song Thaek in 2013, Chinese units were quickly sent to the area to prevent any unexpected surprises from the China-North Korea border.” 

Kim also said that these mechanized units have one purpose, which is “to quickly resolve the inflamed situation by marching in North Korea, if necessary.” 

PTZ-89 tank destroyers (Type 89) seen on the streets of Yanji, China. Picture originally from weibo.com/chaoxinanzuren

PGZ-95 self-propelled anti-aircraft guns (Type 95 SPAAA) were also seen being transported by trains. Picture originally from weibo.com/u/1787484803

155 mm self-propelled guns were seen as well. Picture originally from weibo.com/u/1787484803 

“The composition of these units is aimed to achieve high mobility, high fire power and light weight compared to common mechanized units around the world. The PTZ-89 tank destroyer, despite its name, is not considered a conventional heavy tank in the terms of military equipment. They are considered light tanks and are meant to have equally high fire power as heavy tanks, with lighter armor to maximize the mobility of units. 

“China’s message is simple: Their units are focused on quickly invading North Korea as fast as they can, suppressing all opponents with the maximum fire power that Chinese mechanized units can provide,” Kim said. “Also, these light-weight mechanized units will survive North Korea’s poor road conditions, which conventional heavy tanks can’t.” 

He also noted that China’s PLA has repeatedly trained for crossing the Yalu River many times before, meaning that the Chinese Army would not find it hard to cross the river into North Korea should such an action become necessary. 

“That mechanical brigade alone is powerful enough to obliterate the border defenses of North Korea, even before they realize it is coming. But they are certainly not strong enough to stand against the ROK-U.S. joint forces.”

That mechanical brigade alone is powerful enough to obliterate the border defenses of North Korea, even before they realize it is coming. But they are certainly not strong enough to stand against the ROK-U.S. joint forces.”

‘China is sending a very simple message to North Korea’

The message, one expert said, is a reply to one the North previously sent China’s way. 

“This is no joke, China is sending a very simple message to North Korea,” said Cha Du-hyeogn, the former secretary to President Lee Myung-bak for crisis information. “Back on (Friday), North Korea publicly stated that ‘no country in the world can stop’ North Korea from further escalating the current situation, and that message was directly aimed to tackle China, for them possibly trying to interfere and disrupt the goal that North Korea was trying to achieve from these recent provocations.” 

Cha said that this movement is for demonstration purposes only, not for an actual invasion of North Korea. 

“These movements are certainly not just for enhancing the border defenses between China and North Korea. Armed police forces are responsible for the China-North Korea border, but these units have nothing to do with border defenses, nor do they belong to the armed police.” 

“But China won’t invade North Korea as it would only increase international tension. If there is one thing that China and the U.S. have in common, is that they neither one want to see North Korea become the center of an international incident,” he said. “China’s message is strong and simple: ‘Yes, we can stop you, if necessary.’”
He said, however, that this demonstration was not aimed against the U.S. or South Korea. 

“If China really wanted to send a message against South Korea and the U.S., they would have used the navy or air force as weapon of choice, as none of the countries mentioned above share a land border with China. But why would they want to agitate South Korea and the U.S. when North Korea is clearly causing mayhem for the world?” 

John Grisafi contributed to his article.

Pilgrim: Transitioning To A Low Capacity Factor Nuclear Plant

Sept 1 update

They wouldn’t let me talk to the Pilgrim inspector. Only the region public affairs guy. Nice conversation with Neil. The unistrut holding up the copper tube pulled out of the concrete with the copper tubing then falling on the main steam line. Its vibration caused the tube to crack or break.

What is a unistrut?   

Aug 27

Good job Pilgrim now at 100% power.

Aug 26

Oh brother, 24 hours and only 82% power level today? Got problems?

Aug 25

 ***Seems to be those knowledgeable with the design say there is little chance it being vibrations. Basically the steam pipes are hard attached to the concrete part of the containment. The vibrations in the main steam lines high up containment with the SRV makes sense. Although plants have had pipe attachments and restraints from the containment to the turbine repeated fail do to the vibration flow.   

What chances do you think they got of a smooth startup and return to 100% do they got. Less than 50/50?

I see Pilgrim started up last night.

Wow, we haven’t seen this all summer. The NE ISO grid price is now about $450 per megawatt hour. I can’t believe Pilgrim did this???

At 4pm it is only 83 degrees in my Hinsdale, NH area? It is 73 degrees in Boston today?   

***This just goes to show how pathetically weak the NRC is with letting Pilgrim get off the hook with prior scrams and enhanced inspections. Oh yea, the NRC fixed them with their heavy hand.   

Officials Investigating Automatic Shutdown at Pilgrim  

PLYMOUTH – An automatic reactor shutdown was triggered at the Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station late Saturday. 

Plant officials, plant-owner Entergy, and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission are investigating the cause of that shutdown. Officials are on-site today.

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission says the shutdown never created a threat to the public. It’s not clear when the plant will be back online. 

This is the third shutdown at the Plymouth plant this year. Pilgrim was under additional oversight by the NRC until the end of June as a result of the two earlier shutdowns. NRC inspectors found that the plant had addressed the areas of weakness responsible for the unplanned shutdowns during winter storms in January.

According to NRC spokesman Neil Sheehan, the NRC is continuing to review an apparent violation that was issued to Pilgrim on May 27. 

That finding involves the maintenance of the plant’s safety relief valves and stems from a special inspection conducted at the site after January’s shutdown.

I wished they disclosed what steam line the MSIV broke from. NRC event report:

REACTOR SCRAM DUE TO A SINGLE MSIV CLOSURE "On Saturday, August 22, 2015, at 1628 [EDT], with the reactor at 100% core thermal power (CTP) the Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station (PNPS) experienced an automatic reactor scram signal due to the rapid closure of one main steam isolation valve (MSIV). Other than the MSIV all other plant systems responded as designed. Plant cooldown is in progress using steam bypass to the main condenser.

"The plant is in hot shutdown. The cause of the MSIV closure is still under investigation. This event has no impact on the health and safety of the public. The licensee has notified the NRC Senior Resident Inspector.

"This notification is being made in accordance with 10 CFR 50.72(b)(2)(iv)(B), 'Any event that results in actuation of the reactor protection system (RPS) when the reactor is critical'.

"Subsequent to the reactor scram the plant experienced the following isolation signals:

- Group 2 Isolation: Miscellaneous containment isolation valves

- Group 6 Isolation: Reactor Water Clean-up

- Reactor Building Isolation Actuation

"This notification is also being made in accordance with 10 CFR 50.72(b)(3)(iv)(A), 'Any event or condition that results in valid actuation of any of the systems listed in paragraph (b)(3)(iv)(B) of this section' (B)(2) 'General containment isolation signals affecting containment isolation valves in more than one system or multiple main steam isolation valves (MSIVs).'"

Plant response was considered normal and the plant is in a stable shutdown / cooldown condition. The license will be notifying the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.

The copper tube makes sense. The problem is, the Safety Relief Valve broke because of abnormal vibrations on the main steam line valves line. The only sense with why these safety grade small copper tubing broke is through excessive vibration.

I request an evaluation on vibrations on all main steam lines and request they install temporary vibration monitors on main steam lines before start-up to detect any abnormal main steam line vibration.

I believe I asked the NRC if Pilgrim had installed Main Steam Line Isolation Valves vibration detectors...the NRC said they didn't require it. I was shocked they didn't.

Are there any associations with broken SRVs and the failed MSIV copper tube... 

Inquiry to begin over Pilgrim nuclear plant’s ‘safe’ shutdown

David L. Ryan/Globe Staff/File

The Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station in Plymouth went into automatic shutdown Saturday.

By Nicole Fleming Globe Correspondent August 23, 2015

The Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station on Cape Cod Bay in Plymouth remains closed Sunday after going into an automatic shutdown Saturday afternoon, according to station and government officials.

“The plant is currently in a safe, stable shutdown condition and there is no impact on the health and safety of the public or plant employees,” said Lauren Burm, a spokeswoman for Entergy Corp., the company that operates Pilgrim, in a statement.

Officials for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, an independent government agency overseeing the safety of nuclear plants, reiterated Sunday afternoon that there were no safety concerns regarding the state’s only operating nuclear power station.

“There were no complications during the shutdown and no increased risks to plant workers or the public,” said Neil Sheehan, an NRC spokesman.

The reactor and associated systems were cooled down to allow for an investigation into what caused the emergency shutdown, which is also called a scram.

Nuclear reactors use steam to make electricity, operating “like a giant tea kettle, turning water into steam which spins giant turbines that power generators to make electricity,” according to an explanation on Pilgrim’s website.

The shutdown occurred at about 4:30 p.m. Saturday while the reactor was at 100 percent power, triggered by the closure of a single main steam isolation valve, Burm stated, with all other plant systems responding as designed.

‘There were no complications during the shutdown and no increased risks to plant workers.’

Neil Sheehan, Nuclear Regulatory Commission spokesman

The valves “would be used in the event of an accident to halt the flow of steam from the reactor to the turbine building and thereby help ‘isolate’ radioactivity to the containment building surrounding the reactor,” said Sheehan.

A copper tube about a half-inch in diameter, called an air/nitrogen line, broke, triggering the valve closure, said Chip Perkins, a nuclear engineer and the regulatory assurance manager for Entergy. While the repair of the line shouldn’t be that complicated, the plant will do an investigation into what they call “extended circumstances,” followed by other independent investigations.

“Once we find a problem, we go in and look around to see if there are any other problems like it and any other areas where we have similar conditions,” said Perkins.

Is Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar The New 1980s Texas Collaspe?

These guys real estate build-up and borrowing on a host of projects dwarfs 1980s and current Texas build up. And they are only tiny populations and countries.  

Stock markets in Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar crashed

Stock prices in Gulf states nose dived on Sunday in a massive market sell-off sparked by descending oil prices, with the Saudi and Dubai bourses leading the slide.

But now, when everything is looking so rosy, it might be a good time to remember those bumper stickers. The boom of the early 1980s was caused by drillers reacting to record high prices. But, as always, the best cure for high prices was high prices, and the rampant drilling (paired with reduced demand for pricey crude) resulted in an oil glut. From 1981 to 1986 the price of oil plunged from $37 a barrel to $14 (nominal dollars). 

As prices collapsed, the drilling rigs so recently in hot demand fell silent. The Texas boom ended. It wasn’t long before the million of square feet of “see-through” office buildings, built on spec and sitting empty, became the basis for the Savings & Loan crisis.

The Tadawul All-Shares Index in Riyadh, the Gulf's leading market, shed 549.51 points, or 6.86%, to close at 7,463.32 points.

The kingdom's all-important petrochemicals industry lost 7.94%, while the real-estate sector tumbled 9.50%.

In Dubai, the leading DFM Index slumped 6.96% to close at 3,451.48 points.

Real-estate developer Emaar Properties lost 8.31% while builder Arabtec Construction, another market leader, dropped 9.6%, nearing its 10% daily limit.

The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange plunged 5%, while Qatar Exchange, the second largest in the Gulf, lost almost 5.3%.

The Kuwait Stock Exchange shed 2.36%, while Muscat Securities Market and Bahrain lost 2.94% and 0.37%, respectively.

The falls across the region come after oil prices slid to new lows during trade Friday, with New York's light sweet crude plunging to $40.04 per barrel, the lowest level since March 2009.

World stock markets were also hammered with heavy losses on Friday, as China's economic woes triggered European and Wall Street equity sell-offs and stirred up fears for global growth.

Korean War II Begins Before Monday Aug 24, 2015

Monday Aug 24 Update (I finally got my date and day properly synced)

***Seoul, South Korea (CNN)Provocations, landmines, troops amassing -- just how severe are the current tensions between North Korea and South Korea?

Serious enough that the United States dusted off its war plan for defending South Korea in case the North started a war.

Two U.S. officials told CNN's Barbara Starr that top commanders have reviewed the war plans and are watching for what U.S. forces would be needed if it comes to war. 

***CNN today (The Korean President got elected to become tough on North Korea?):

"Seoul, South Korea (CNN)South Korean President Park-geun hye said Monday that she's still waiting for an apology from North Korea as marathon talks between the two sides over a recent spike in military tensions spilled into a third day. 

Park said that she wants Pyongyang to apologize for recent provocations, including landmine blasts that badly wounded two South Korean soldiers earlier this month. 

"This is a matter of national security and safety of our people," she said. "This not a matter where we can back down, even if North Korea maximizes its provocations and threatens security like it did in the past." 

Update Aug 23

Did Donald Trump say this morning the markets are collapsing as we speak.

Just saying, with Sagami Depot explosions, think about the automatic response the USA would need take if this turned out to be terrorism? Can you imagine if another event showed up and the terrorist would get caught...would we use a proportional response or would we take North Korea out considering they being so dangerous. You know,do you think our military leaders would think the North Koreans would be rational with accepting our proportional response? You think for one moment Obama would be honest with us considering the worldwide ramifications...

Remember, they say the Black Monday 1987 stock market collapse was initiated or made worst by the images of a burning Iranian oil rig in the Gulf seen on all our TVs on Oct 19, 1987. Is this what is in store for us tomorrow and Korean situation can only make it worst?  God only knows what other fires and explosion we will see in the coming days on our TVs and monitors. We live is such a different world today with our amazing world wide connectivity and modern cell phones with picture and videos.

Honestly, if it was North Korean terrorist just outside Tokyo with exploding bombs...do you honestly think they would tell us the truth considering the worldwide stock market panic developing for Monday.

Japanese separatist or North Koreans terrorist sending the Americans a message?   

Huge explosions at US army base (Sagami Depot Japan-
35th Combat Sustainment Support Battalion) in Japan as warehouse burns and emergency services rush to scene 

• 18:11, 23 August 2015
• By Laura Connor

A helicopter is circling the military area in Sagamihara city after a series of massive bangs were heard from a warehouse which stores ammunition.

The site is part of a US army complex next to the capital where three deliberate explosions were reported in April, in what police suspect was an act of left-wing Japanese extremists. 

But so far there has been nothing to suggest this blast was terror-related.

Sagami Depot Japan with the recent explosions has a exalted history in Korea?   

The 35th Combat Sustainment Support Battalion Sagami Depot, Japan 

History

The 35th Combat Sustainment Support Battalion (CSSB) lineage begins at Ft. Devens, Massachusetts, on March 15, 1944, when it was activated as Headquarters and Headquarters Detachment, 216th Quartermaster Battalion. The unit then deployed to Okinawa, Japan, where it participated in World War II’s Ryukyu campaign (March 26 ~ July 2, 1945) and earned the unit a campaign streamer.

Following its outstanding service in Japan, the unit deployed to Korea in support of rebuilding the Korean infrastructure. The unit was inactivated January 25, 1949, in the Republic of Korea. Two years later in March 1951 it was redesignated as Headquarters and Headquarters Detachment, 35th Quartermaster Battalion, and allotted to the Regular Army.

On June 1, 1959, the 35th deployed to Germany and on September 25, 1961, it was reorganized and redesignated the 35th Quartermaster Battalion. Another name change occurred August 2, 1965, where it became the 35th Supply and Services Battalion. The unit continued its tradition of providing first-class combat service support in Germany until it was inactivated December 21, 1972.

The unit was reactivated October 15, 1987, and made its home at Sagami Depot, Japan, where it continues to conduct world-class depot operations and provides combat service support throughout the U.S. Army Japan and I Corps (Forward) area of operations. On October 16, 2006, the battalion was redesignated the 35th Combat Sustainment Support Battalion.

So who could be instigating North Korea? Course N Korea could be doing this as a ploy to get any of these players to help them. 

China- I doubt it. Although they rescued them from the west in the Korean war and put them in the communist orbit as a result of the cold war. 

Russia- these guys might be funding them and supplying them with weapon as a means to get even with the western world. Putin might want to rile up the western world over sanctions with Crimea and the Ukraine. This again might be a ploy to coalesces the population from sanctions and Putin's failing popularity.  

Iran- maybe, but I doubt it considering their nuclear deal. 

The Saudis- there is one. 

ISIS-maybe divert us from Syria and Iraq problem.       

The butterfly affect?

It is just mind boggling one rouge artillery commander has the possibility to change the world. He initiates a barrage to the outside of Soul.

They used the talky-talky to just booster their defense and their attack stance. Why isn't the USA in a world wide alert and we are flooding Korea with all the instruments of our pathetically weak military.  

Two Koreas Talks Lengthen Into Second Night

About 70% of Pyongyang’s submarines are away from their bases, South Korean defense ministry says

SEOUL—Talks between the two Koreas to end a military standoff stretched into a second night with Seoul accusing Pyongyang of trying to increase its leverage by deploying large numbers of submarines and artillery.

South Korea’s defense ministry said around 70% of Pyongyang’s submarines were away from their bases on Sunday in an unusually large deployment. North Korea has also doubled its artillery strength near the border since Friday, a ministry spokesman said…  

This is the original title, I really meant Aug 23 24. My bad bad.

'Korean War II Begins Before Monday Aug 21 23, 2015'  

Update Aug 22 

The North Koreans requested negotiations. It seems like a good sign. So they say once the war begins, the poppet South Koreans wouldn't budge and war is their fault.

Would a war coalesce the population around Kim Jong-un? Is the south going to cave to this nut one more time, give him a out to save face while embarrassing the south's Park Geun-hye.    

So why isn't Obama in Donald Trump style coming out in a press statement...if North Korea starts a shooting war we coming at them with whatever we got We going to cut off the head of the north Korean leadership. If you start a war under these conditions of a insecure world...we will reset the national leadership and charge the lot of you with war crimes. 

Personally I think the dramatic decline of 530 points with the stock market today was mostly the fear that the Korean war would be going full tilt by opening Monday morning. The big stock market players were worried a stock market collapse would be ongoing upon market start-up. I think there is a 80% chance of war Monday and we have become locked into it.

Just saying if N Korea was massively militarizing in anticipation of a near war… would our politian’s have the kahunas to initiate a preemptive war to limit the damage to S Korea and the western world?       

How pathetic CNN is with pulling their punches...they waited until the severely weakening stock markets were closed to start reporting on the Korean crisis.     

What if we wake up Monday morning with a massive artillery barrage ongoing in South Korea? Basically in a full scale war. War scenarios talk about 100,000s of Koreans dead within days and up to 10,000 Americans dead. Trillions of dollars will be eaten up in the war with world wide financial ramifications. Can one even imagine how CNN would cover this? 10 million people abandoning Soul Korea. There is outliers here with atomic weapons and biological warfare. I think from the opening barrage the N Koreans will be thinking we have to severely damage the south as for a eventual settlement. The USA's position would be quickly cuts their heads off at the earliest opportunity... 

Do they got sleeper cells in the USA...can you imagine bombs on soft targets in the USA? 
   
What if in the beginning the US fumbles this and we discoverer our military was too weak to put an immediate end to the hostilities? Iraq, Afghanistan and republican budget sequestration severely weakened our military.
      

I think this would damage the modern west way more than the North Koreans and the North Koreans know this.

What is the Donald Trump equation in this? Has he tilted the axis of the world already? We all have heard his position on a much strengthen military by a factor of a billion over and over again in recent weeks. 

And he declared, “I believe in the military and military strength more strongly than anybody running by a factor of a billion… We are gonna make our military so strong and so powerful and so incredible, so strong that nobody’s gonna mess with us, folks, nobody. And we don’t have that right now.”     

Has this Trumpism set the stage where we will have to use our iron fist? Everyone is preparing for war and some are fleeing their homes. Can you see him if we bungle the opening stages of the war with his big mouth. Trump will say, this is proof how weak we have become.
  

In two years, will we say the Korean War was the point where Trump's presidency was destiny...

Would a Korean war weaken or strengthen Trump?

Fitch: US Nuclear Power growth Prospects uncertain

Was modular construction and overhauling new plant licensing just a nuclear industry con job. I think the extreme nuclear and electric industry mentality...the extreme anti governmentalism and market ideology of selfishness is behind this. Us corporate titans are gods and we answer to nothing but our small tribe's interest.
 
This isn't a technical failure, but a extreme conservative political, organization or so called market failure. It is the crazy idea that the free markets are the gods of our times. We are incompetent at managing organizations...the faux ethereal free markets are the best ultimate managers of our bureaucracies and organizations.

Basically we don't trust our politicians and corporate leaders...the safest solution is to dilute power to the lot of them all. We don't trust people who hold power over all of us, to act in our interest...so give as little power to the lot of them. 
 
As with our failures of new construction during the 1970s and 1980s, and the startling new construction failures today, its our poor control over our electric utilities. We don't think big enough...

A huge symptom of this today is the average age of the nuclear fleet. It is burgeoning dependence an reverse engineering, as original manufactures or vendors supporting the nuclear industry have long gone out business. We once had huge American businesses with a horde engineers and extensive testing...now we got little mom and pop vendors doing reverse engineering manufacturing obsolete components.

The nuclear industry looks like today, how we are eking out survival after the apocalypse. It speaks about our capability to be organize as a nation...  

Fitch: US Nuclear Power growth Prospects uncertain

India Infoline News Service | Mumbai | August 21, 2015 07:19 IST  

However, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Clean Power Plan, along with the rise in federally funded nuclear power research, could yield growth factors longer term.

The recent failure of modular construction to deliver lower prices and shorter timelines will likely keep a cap on U.S. nuclear development into the mid term, Fitch Ratings says. However, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Clean Power Plan, along with the rise in federally funded nuclear power research, could yield growth factors longer term. 

The total cost to complete the Vogtle nuclear power plant expansion has risen to approximately $17 billion. Similarly, construction costs for the new units at the V.C. Summer plant have risen to approximately $12.4 billion. Both projects are approximately three years behind schedule. They are using a modular construction technique and technology developed by Westinghouse, the AP1000 PWR, which was designed to be less costly and faster. Four AP 1,000 reactors under construction in China have also experienced cost overruns and delays. In our view, the change in expectations about this technique could join other forces in keeping expansion down. 

Last year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast that nuclear generation will drop by approximately 10,800 MWe by 2020 on the low cost of natural gas and an expected lack of growth in electricity demand. In our view this number could grow if more plant operators find upgrades and local political pressure too costly to continue operations. 

These pressures shut Dominion Resources' Kewaunee plant, Duke Energy Corp.'s Crystal River plant, Edison International's San Onofre plant, and Entergy's Vermont Yankee plant. Exelon's Oyster Creek is scheduled for retirement in 2019. Approximately eight additional merchant units, with an aggregate capacity of 6,334 MW, are also at risk of early retirement.  

By comparison only five new units are currently under construction and a license has been issued for one other, according to a report published last month by the Nuclear Energy Institute. Although a further 10 units are under active Nuclear Regulatory Commission review, their status remains uncertain. Plant age could also play a role in preserving current generation. Of the 99 nuclear units in operation, 73 have received 20-year license extensions beyond their original 40-year operating licenses. An additional 19 applications for license extension are pending and the remaining units are likely to be filed over the next several years.  

However, several federal government initiatives could reverse these pressures. One was issued this month. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Clean Power Plan credits new nuclear power plants and upgrades to existing ones towards compliance. Various Department of Energy loan programs also provide inexpensive funding and liquidity. U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that energy subsidies and research support have been in the billions, annually. In our view, these measures could slow the decline in nuclear power generation if they are continued for the long run. 

The Exelon and Quad Cities Cronicles.

Exelon says revamped PJM auction won't spare Quad Cities plant

Jeffrey Tomich, E&E reporter
EnergyWire: Thursday, August 20, 2015 

PJM Interconnection LLC's annual capacity auction will almost certainly mean more revenue for some power plant owners. It will also probably spark renewed outcry from critics who fought new capacity performance standards -- rules aimed at avoiding a repeat of near system collapse related to the 2014 polar vortex. 

But the auction, results of which will be released tomorrow afternoon, will not provide a lifeline for Exelon Corp.'s money-losing Quad Cities nuclear plant, the Chicago-based company said. 

Just about admitted they are running these plants with inadequate funding. They are going use this added funding to plow it all right back into the plants. Sounds like this inadequate funding is going to menace the community for a longer period of time? At some point, the NRC is going to have to step in to make a example; we can't allow you maga powerful utilities in crisis to operate nuclear plant like rag dolls. 

The problem with all these nuclear utilities is we have to take them for their word...they won't show us the books.

Contrary to suggestions by some, any additional revenue from the auction and its new rules will have little if any effect on the prognosis for the 1,1819-megawatt dual-reactor plant in western Illinois. And what additional revenues it does bring in will be invested back into units to enhance reliability or used to offset a decline in energy prices. 

Should any nuclear unit ever be "severely challenged"?

We have severely challenged units. We expect those challenges will persist even after the auction," said Joe Dominguez, Exelon's executive vice president of governmental and regulatory affairs and public policy.
Also increasingly clear, the timeline for the company to make a decision whether to shutter the plant isn't as imminent as had been suggested. While the company could announce the plant's retirement in September, there remains time for lawmakers to enact the proposed low-carbon portfolio standard during a fall veto session and perhaps even into early 2016. 

"There is no magical drop-dead date," Dominguez said yesterday morning during a conference call with reporters. 

 

It's expected that Exelon Corp.'s 1,814-megawatt Quad Cities nuclear plant in western Illinois didn't clear last week's PJM capacity auction for 2018-19, increasing odds the company will announce the plant's closure later this year. Photo courtesy of Exelon. 

Illinois, home to 11 Exelon nuclear reactors at six plant sites, is at the forefront of the policy debate about keeping the nation's fleet of aging nuclear reactors running while combating climate change (EnergyWire, Aug. 4). In fact, the company said it will be twice as difficult for Illinois to meet its carbon dioxide emissions reduction target under U.S. EPA's Clean Power Plan if two of the three troubled nuclear plants in Illinois were to shut down. 

And the Quad Cities plant, which employs 800 people and pumps millions of dollars of tax revenue into local government, is in the most immediate need of help to keep running. 

While the carbon rule should indirectly benefit existing nuclear plants, the help won't be immediate. Exelon says some of its plants -- Quad Cities, Clinton and Byron -- continue to bleed red ink. 

The company's Clinton station, a 1,065-MW single-unit plant an hour northeast of Springfield, Ill., faces the greatest financial challenges, Dominguez said. Exelon has said the plant lost more than $100 million last year. 

But the timeline for making a decision about retirement is further off because it is part of the Midcontinent Independent System Operator Inc.'s grid. And the next cutoff for notifying MISO about participation in its next capacity auction isn't until next spring. 

The threat to the Quad Cities plant is more immediate. It has lost $350 million over the last five years, Dominguez said. And analysts have projected losses in excess of $100 million for Quad Cities and Clinton this year.

How about operating the system holistically. Some years the nukes will be more profitable and other years the fossil plants will be more profitable...the stronger energy sources then temporally carry the weaker sources. What about the golden years of nukes, say 2000 to 2010 when they carried the whole utility with their profits. Is that ever accounted for. If Exelon would have massively plow back nuclear plant profits in the golden years to the plants themselves, certainly they would have been more economically now. I think they massively waste money on the excessive bureaucracy instead of building up their infrastructure.        

While Exelon and its merchant nuclear fleet as a whole are profitable, the company has made clear that each generating asset must stand on its own, the same way McDonald's or Starbucks won't let unprofitable stores remain open even though the chain is doing well. 

Exelon's plants have two revenue streams -- income for energy they generate and payments for capacity standing ready to run whenever they're needed. 

Under PJM's rules, those capacity payments are determined through an annual auction conducted three years ahead. The auction results to be announced tomorrow cover the 12 months beginning June 1, 2018. 

Two of Exelon's nuclear plants in PJM -- Quad Cities and Byron -- failed to clear last year's auction at a price of $120 per megawatts-day. The company said before this year's auction, conducted electronically last week, that the plants are a "long shot" to clear for 2018-19, even with new capacity performance standards in place, according to CEO Chris Crane. 

The capacity performance standards, approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, significantly raise penalties for generators that fail to perform during emergencies like the polar vortex and increase payments for those overperforming. 

Dominguez, however, said the new PJM standards, while they could produce incremental revenue for plants that clear, are offset by other factors. First, the company expects to invest $350 million to $450 million in its fossil fleet in PJM to meet the new rules. 

Perhaps more importantly, the decline in forward power prices over the past year offsets even a $75 per MW-day increase in capacity prices for 2018-19, putting the company in the same spot it was in from a total revenue standpoint, he said.

Exelon continues push for new energy policies

Exelon maintains that the only real solution to the financial challenges faced by its three Illinois nuclear plants is a state policy that rewards its nuclear fleet in the same fashion as wind, solar and other zero-carbon energy sources. 

The company's low-carbon standard proposal is one of three major energy bills filed this spring, none of which passed. Legislators have expressed a desire to look at energy policy on a comprehensive basis, something that could even happen during a fall veto session (EnergyWire, June 2).
Critics and supporters of competing legislation question the need for the legislation proposed by Exelon, and said the PJM 2018-19 auction and 2016-17 transitional auction held this month could bring the company hundreds of millions of dollars in additional revenue beginning next year. 

Dave Lundy, a spokesman for the BEST Coalition, a business group that opposes the Exelon bill, expects the company to announce the closure of Quad Cities as it seeks to bolster its case with legislators. 

"I think you need to take a holistic look at this, from the credibility of the threat and what happens if there's a closure," Lundy said. 

Wall Street analysts, too, expect a Quad Cities announcement if, as expected, the plant doesn't clear the 2018-19 auction. 

"We expect firm plant closure commitments to ratchet up pressure in the state this fall," UBS research analysts said in an Aug. 10 note to investors.

Critical decisions ahead for Quad Cities

Dominguez said Exelon faces several key decision points in the coming months with respect to Quad Cities. And while there's no firm cutoff date for getting legislative help, the longer it takes will make keeping the plant in business more difficult and expensive. 

First, the company must notify PJM 18 months in advance whether its plants will be available for the annual capacity auction. That means by September for Quad Cities to participate in the spring 2017 auction (for 2020-21). 

It's possible Exelon could announce a Quad Cities closure in September and still have time to reverse the decision if the Legislature acts on the low-carbon standard proposal by the end of the year or even early 2016. 

Exelon also faces operational decisions at Quad Cities. One unit at the plant requires refueling in March, and the company hasn't yet decided if it will order a fuel core assembly that enables the reactor to operate for two years, as usual, or if it will order a single year's worth of fuel. At the Clinton plant, Exelon has moved to annual refueling outages, which, while less efficient and more costly, enable the company to operate the plant from year to year. 

The company must notify Westinghouse of its decision whether to fuel one of the reactors for one or two years by the end of September. But even that could be changed if the Legislature acts. 

"Action by the end of the year would likely put us in a posture where we could reverse that decision," Dominguez said. 

Exelon's Quad Cities Shutdown Moving Line In the Sand.

The new monies shouldn't go to CEO bonuses or to artificially boost the price of their faltering stock price. You should sign a contract with them with new grid monies, forcing them to "make new" the Quad Cities two plant facility. Completely overhaul the facility! And I am telling you, it is going to be costly...

This has the ability to collapse the safety culture of a plant, the good and highly experienced guys heading for the doors. These guys have been putting off doing the bigger maintenance jobs, they will never catch up with these poorly cared for obsolesced plants.

These creaky "junk plants" can make a lot of money for Exelon if they aren't forced to bring these plants up to current standards.

I still say Exelon is blackmailing Illinois with these junk plants. We will hollow out many thousand of state jobs if you don't come up with a new grid formula. I would never trust the word of a blackmailer.

Quad Cities Generating Station

 

Exelon warns Cordova nuclear power plant could close in 2017

Posted: Monday, August 17, 2015 5:38 pm | Updated: 5:38 pm, Mon Aug 17, 2015.

qconli

MOLINE -- Exelon could close its Quad Cities Generating Station near Cordova in 2017 if Illinois lawmakers do not approve a new energy bill this fall, according to William Stoermer of the company.

Mr. Stoermer also said Exelon must be able to successfully sell its power at upcoming energy auctions, the first scheduled for Friday.

The auctions hosted by PJM -- the Northern Illinois Regional Transmission Operator that supplies power to parts of 13 states -- are designed to ensure enough energy is available to meet customer demand, Mr. Stoermer said. PJM is planning three auctions within four weeks of each other.

Mr. Stoermer said Friday's auction is for power distribution in 2018-2019.

"While we certainly anticipate we would clear that auction, there is a possibility that we will not," Mr. Stoermer said. "If we do not clear that auction, that means our power can't be sold into PJM during that time frame.

"So it's essential that we clear the auction," he said. "If we don't clear any of those auctions, then the legislation in Springfield becomes even more important to us."…