Friday, July 29, 2016

Zika In USA: A Building Pandemic

8/31

NYT: "Zika Can Be Transmitted by Female Mosquito to Her Eggs, Study Says"

8/23
It is in Tampa. Its everywhere. Horrible infant skull and brain MRI pictures just came on in the NYTs... 
Zika virus spreads across Florida

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. - Florida’s governor says that state has confirmed five new non-travel-related cases of Zika, including the first one in the Tampa Bay area. However, officials are not yet declaring it a new zone of active local transmission.
Gov. Rick Scott said at a Zika roundtable in the Tampa area’s Pinellas County that four new cases were connected to mosquitoes in Miami’s Wynwood​ arts district. He says the fifth case was diagnosed in a Pinellas County resident who hasn’t traveled internationally. Last week health officials announced five other cases of Zika were linked to mosquitoes in Miami Beach​.
Officials are looking into the possibility that the Pinellas County resident was infected with the virus in a neighboring county.
Reporting from Florida, CBS News correspondent David Begnaud said crews are doing door-to-door surveys to help figure out the source.
8/22

"We are concerned about a potential spread of locally-borne Zika virus outside of a small area in Miami," he writes. "Including ancillary hospitality-related industries, tourism is a $90 billion industry in Florida, with $24 billion generated in Miami-Dade County alone."

8/21

Heroin, Zika this election Cycle, man are we being tested.

Movie: "The Day The Earth Stood Still"

Professor Barnhardt: There must be alternatives. You must have some technology that could solve our problem.
 
Klaatu: Your problem is not technology. The problem is you. You lack the will to change.

Professor Barnhardt: Then help us change.
 
Klaatu: I cannot change your nature. You treat the world as you treat each other.
 
Professor Barnhardt: But every civilization reaches a crisis point eventually.
 
Klaatu: Most of them don't make it.
 
Professor Barnhardt: Yours did. How?
 
Klaatu: Our sun was dying. We had to evolve in order to survive.
 
Professor Barnhardt: So it was only when your world was threated with destruction that you became what you are now.
 
Klaatu: Yes.
 
Professor Barnhardt: Well that's where we are. You say we're on the brink of destruction and you're right. But it's only on the brink that people find the will to change. Only at the precipice do we evolve. This is our moment. Don't take it from us, we are close to an answer.

Health official warns Zika could spread across U.S. Gulf

By Chris PrenticeA August 21, 2016
 
MIAMI—A National Institutes of Health official said Sunday that the Zika virus could “hang around” the United States for a year or two.
Dr. Anthony Fauci told ABC’s “This Week” that other Gulf Coast states, besides Florida, are most vulnerable to the spread of the disease.
“I would not be surprised if we see cases in Texas and Louisiana, particularly now where you have the situation with flooding in Louisiana,” said Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “There are going to be a lot of problems getting rid of standing water.”...
8/19

What happens if a hurricane hits a Zika area? How much will the hurricane disperse the infected mosquitoes... 

Yep, "The day We last Florida", the day we realize in hindsight we lost Florida. Our Florida Black Swan event. How a teabagger governor creates a panic that destroys Florida.

Bet you the vector is the luxury ship liners.
WSJ: Pregnant Miami Women Avoid Outdoors Over Zika Fear
Gov. Rick Scott is expected to discuss what efforts are being made to reduce risks
MIAMI—Katrina Barnard is in a self-imposed Zika jail.
Twenty weeks pregnant, she has essentially shifted her life indoors. No more pool time, park outings or sitting on the porch—once rites of summer for the 27-year old, who is expecting her third boy. She hardly ventures to the mailbox anymore.
“Every time you go out of the house it’s like Russian roulette almost,” she said. “I’m really scared right now.”
Anxiety is mounting across Miami, home to the continental U.S.’s first known cases of Zika virus transmitted by mosquitoes, as the outbreak appears to be spreading, fueling fears that the threat is greater than initially anticipated.
Health officials are investigating a cluster of possible Zika cases in Miami Beach, Fla., and at least one other area of Miami-Dade County is also under investigation for another possible cluster, according to people familiar with the investigations.
Gov. Rick Scott is expected to address the situation during a news conference Friday
8/18

The politics of a contagion in vacationland.

What was Florida? 

NYT: A cluster of Zika cases most likely transmitted by local mosquitoes has been identified in Miami Beach, a health official said Thursday. Health authorities are trying to decide whether to designate a section of the bustling tourist city as a zone of active Zika transmission, and whether to advise pregnant women to avoid the area.
8/1

These headline in USA in a year?
ATLANTA, Georgia, July 30, 2016 (ENS) – Since local transmission of the Zika virus was first reported in Puerto Rico in December 2015, it has become so widespread on the island that public health officials are calling it an “epidemic.”
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC, is warning that the Zika virus could affect up to 10,000 pregnant women in Puerto Rico this year, putting hundreds of infants in jeopardy for birth defects of the brain.
The greatest danger is that Zika infection during pregnancy can cause a birth defect called microcephaly in which babies are born with abnormally small heads and other severe fetal birth defects. It also is associated with other adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Florida Placed on state of emergency. Waiting for the second local to pop up. All hell of going to break out when the rate of microcephaly begins to tick up.
10 Additional Zika Cases Found in Florida Outbreak; Governor Activates 'Emergency Response'

The normal transmission speaks of mosquitoes biting inflected person and then biting another person infecting them. There is a different massively exponential form of transmission called transovarial (via the eggs) transmission. It is a mother transmitting the virus to her offspring. The adult life span for males is about 7 days. The female is about a month. A mother can lay about 3000 eggs in her lifetime.  
The history of new mosquitoes (tiger mosquitoes) and their virus entering the USA informs us most get here through the transportations of agriculture products, boxes and containers, mostly shipboad containers carry foreign bugs and virus.

It is utterly amazing and disgraceful we don't totally scientifically understand "transovarial transmissions in this day and age. This leads you to the assumption if you find one infected mosquitoes in the USA with a new virus , it means no mater what you do, its going everywhere.

So everyone is downplaying the potential of a Pandemic because it might crater the Florida vacationland and second home industry. It won't be a large fatality rate unless the virus mutates, but it is going to be economically disruptive.

We need a vaccine yesterday!!!
*Infected female mosquitoes may also transmit the virus to their offspring by "transovarial (via the eggs) transmission", but the role of this in sustaining transmission of the virus to humans has not yet been defined.
*Adult mosquitoes usually mate within a few days after emerging from the pupal stage. In most species, the males form large swarms, usually around dusk, and the females fly into the swarms to mate.
***Males typically live for about 5–7 days, feeding on nectar and other sources of sugar. After obtaining a full blood meal, the female will rest for a few days while the blood is digested and eggs are developed. This process depends on the temperature, but usually takes two to three days in tropical conditions. Once the eggs are fully developed, the female lays them and resumes host-seeking.
The cycle repeats itself until the female dies. While females can live longer than a month in captivity, most do not live longer than one to two weeks in nature. Their lifespans depend on temperature, humidity, and their ability to successfully obtain a blood meal while avoiding host defenses and predators.
The Miami story:
Nation’s first local outbreak of Zika in Miami, health officials confirm

At least two people acquired Zika from mosquitoes that bit them within a one-square-mile area north of downtown Miami sometime in early July, state and federal health officials said Friday, confirming the first cluster of the virus spread locally in the continental United States.

Four people in South Florida — two in Miami-Dade County and two in Broward — have been infected by local mosquitoes, according to Florida Gov. Rick Scott , who made the announcement that triggered a wave of response from public health agencies and elected officials.

“Florida has become the first state in the nation to have local transmission of the Zika virus,” Scott said.

Zika’s arrival in the continental United States has been anticipated since last fall, following the virus’s rapid spread through the Caribbean and Latin America. But confirmation that local mosquitoes have transmitted Zika in Florida set off alarm bells in Congress, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other for failing to approve emergency funding to prepare for the disease.

The disease also may have major impacts on travel and tourism. Miami is a major port of entry for people traveling from countries and U.S. territories with active Zika transmission, and millions of people are expected to flow through South Florida on their way to and from the veritable epicenter of the outbreak, Brazil, which is hosting the Summer Olympics...
Tiger mosquitoes
The zika virus: a new threat from the tiger mosquito
May 2014
Scientific newssheets
© IRD / M. Jacquet Tiger mosquito Indigo 50719  
Like its cousins, the dengue and chikungunya viruses, zika appeared several years ago. Two epidemics in the Pacific were recently revealed to the world: the first in Micronesia in 2007, and a second, very significant one with 55,000 patients in Polynesia at the end of 2013. A retrospective study on the dengue and chikungunya epidemic that occurred in Libreville, Gabon in 2007 has just shown that zika was also present then. This is the first time that a zika fever epidemic has been found in Africa, where it originated, and also in an urban setting. These studies also show the responsible factor: the tiger mosquito, already known to be the vector for two other arboviruses in Gabon. Knowing the global spread of this insect, these results present a new potential threat to human health around the world.
Range in USA
   
Blood donations in Miami areas stopped.
Miami (AFP) - US regulators Thursday called for a halt to blood donations in the Miami area as investigators probe four potential non-travel associated cases of the mosquito-borne Zika virus, which can cause birth defects.
If confirmed, the cases would mark the first time that mosquitoes carrying the virus are known to be present in the mainland United States.

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